Maybe it is not an Emergency?

13 December 2012 NATO announced that the Patriot PAC 3 batteries requested by Turkey on 30 November 2012 would be honored.  2 Batteries from Germany, 2 Batteries from Netherlands will be supplied. 14 December 2012 United Stated Department of Defense announced that it would contribute 2 Batteries to the NATO mission to Turkey (Deployed from Europe). It is expected that these batteries will be operational at the end of January 2013.

In this case NATO is providing 1 enhanced ADA Battalion (Not America Disabilities Act)(Air Defense Artillery) (6 Batteries versus normal 4 Batteries), The United States to provide 400 troops, German is providing approximately 400 troops and the Netherlands is providing approximately 360 troops.  Total initial troop commitment 1160 soldiers.  All parties emphasized in their respective announcements that unit will be under “NATO control”.

Wait it gets better as stated in the NATO press release the unit will not be operational until the end of January 2013.  Hopefully this will be so that the troops that are tagged with this deployment will be allowed to spend this Christmas with their families.  Glad it is not that much of an emergency.  On a side note it is a clever way to extent the ballistic missile shield closer to Iran, but I am sure that had nothing to do with the decision to forward deploy this ADA Battalion.

Just how long are they going to be forward deployed is the next question?  Will the troop elements be rotated out on a regular basis, so as to spread the pain among the PAC-3 batteries in Europe?

Even with allowing the troops to stay in Europe until after Christmas, the long deployment time for the Battalion is a direct results of the fact that the various parts of the Patriot system, namely the radar units, command and control centers, and communication and support facilities (power generation) can not be transported by air to Turkey they are either too big or too heavy, or too big and heavy, instead they must be shipped by ground and ship.

It brings to mind the remarks I heard from Retired Marine Corp General Cartwright in a conference where he chided the various chief of the services, he chide the Army for being too heavy and too big to move by air, and chided the Air Force for not being able to move the heavy and or big, and not being able to move enough of it in a timely manner, and finally the Navy for being able to move the big and heavy unfortunately they are too slow to be considered a rapid reaction assets.

In this case NATO is providing 1 enhanced ADA, The United States to provide 400 troops, German is providing approximately 400 troops and the Netherlands is providing approximately 360 troops.  Total initial troop commitment 1160 soldiers.  All parties emphasized in their respective announcements that unit will be under “NATO control” isn’t that nice.

Turkey will supply the physical security forces, and combat engineering support to ready the physical battery sites.  And it goes with out saying, but I will say it anyway that the United States will fill in the holes, i.e. the logistics train that will be required to support this forward deployment.  The United States in all likelihood will be the source of operational spares, since we have the deepest stores.

The 1160 troops associated with the enhanced ADA battalion will require a large logistics train to support it.  Most of the operational support will come out of Europe, another mission for the 21 Theater Sustainment Command.  It takes a great deal of Food, Fuel, Fiber, Shelter, Equipment, and Communications to support 1160 troops downrange.  Lucky for us the natives are friendly, or the footprint would have to be even larger.

NATO also announced that they would be deploying AWAC assets to provide additional coverage for the area, the commitment of another NATO critical asset.  Bad news there is limited maintenance support for this system in Turkey, oh well what a few more trips back and forth between Turkey and Geilenkirchen FRG, it is just a few tons of F-34/F-35 to make that trip.

Currently there are only 74 E-3 AWACS in the free world, NATO has 18 aircraft, France has 4, Saudi Arabia has 13, the United Kingdom has 7, and the United State 32 aircraft, with the majority assigned to the 552^nd Air Control Wing.  At best 80 percent are available for operations at any time, the rest are in maintenance cycle.

NATO had difficulties using their own assets i.e. 18 AWAC to support their operations against Libya lucky for the British, French, and the United States, mainly the United States.  What will we see in NATO’s support of Turkey?

The PAC-3 Batteries are a critical item for the Netherlands and Germany, given that Netherland only has two Squadrons (Battalions) (8 -12 Batteries total), and Germany has 6 Battalions (24-36 Batteries total).  The assets are anything but common.

God only knows what this is going to cost?  God only knows who is going to pay for it?  But my bet is the United State will pay for it either directly or indirectly via our funding of NATO.  It is unfortunate fact that the world is an expensive place.  Let the sequestration begin.

Is it going to be a sprint to the exit?

Who will be the last NATO member troops is a given, it is the United State.  The question is what will that date be?  Our NATO partners have already left the starting gate and are accelerating the withdrawal of their troops and funding.  Are we going to be the cheese who stands alone?

 The House of Representatives wants to keep 68,000 troops Afghanistan for the year 2013 and 2014. The Department of Defense has not objected to these force levels for 2013 and 2014, it delays their force reduction trials and tribulations.  Several groups (Think Tanks) have proposed that the troop level in the out years should be around 30,000 troops.  The Department of Defense has been strangely quiet on the post 2014 troop levels.

The United Senate just past a resolution passed by 62 members of the Senate asking the administration to accelerate the withdraw United States forces from Afghanistan.

Why not, if you believe the various NATO/DOD reported by statements of the various leaders, and by written documentation say that the ANA is ready willing and able to assume the lead in counter terrorism missions, then it appears to be a no brainer, to quote the Nike Corporation slogan “Just Do It”.

Let us just declare victory, leave, and quit spending the money.  Some have suggested that it will take at least 30 Billion dollars per year to keep and support a proposed 30,000 troops post 2014 footprint in Afghanistan.  If we want to keep the troops in the Service so be it, keep them in the United States.  I will content that it is better to spend the estimated 30 Billion dollars within the confines of the United States and reap the rewards rather than boost the economy of some foreign government.

If this is what victory looks like I would sure hate to see defeat.

I am sure the following article in the Defensenews.com was overlooked during the that installment of the fast and furious (AKA the election and its associated campaign).

Here is the link for you to read for your self.

http://www.defensenews.com/article/20121018/DEFREG02/310180004/U-S-Air-Drops-Assume-Critical-Importance-Afghanistan

If ISAF, the majority composition being United States forces, is truly wining the hearts and minds of the Afghanistan then why are these numbers being reported?

Why on Sept 20^th 2012 did the head of the Joint Improvised Explosive Device Defeat Organization (JIEDDO) (What a name, who the hell comes up with these zingers?  He should be fired!) Lt. Gen Michael Barbero reported to the House Appropriations defense subcommittee “in the past two years, IED events have increased 42 percent, from 9,300 in 2009 to 16,000 in 2011. This year we’re on track to meet or exceed the number of events we saw last year. In fact, this July we saw the highest number of monthly IED events ever recorded.”

Does this sound like we are wining?

And this from the Air ForceTimes

http://www.airforcetimes.com/news/2012/02/air-force-record-cargo-delivered-to-afghanistan-020512w/

At the time Air Mobility Command Combat Tactics Branch chief and director of operations Maj. Thomas Lankford, now Lt. Col. Thomas Lankford is quoted as saying “about 40 forward-operating bases were supplied by airdrop alone last year”. That would be for the year 2011.  This number was later updated to 43 forward operating bases.

“43 forward operating bases in Afghanistan were supplied solely by air, with 27,000 troops receiving all of their food, water, ammunition and fuel from the sky, dropped primarily by the U.S. Air Force” (Defense weekly)

Imagine that?  43 manned forward operating bases that through a combination or impassable terrain, poor to non existent roads, IED’s, and either direct attack by hostile enemy forces or the threat of direct attack by hostile enemy forces, we the ISAF/NATO United States Armed forces were forced to resupply these elements via airdrops.  It sounds like the end game at Stalingrad for the Sixth German Army, and or the French Far East Expeditionary Corp at Dien Bien Phu.  Thank god that the Taliban do not have anywhere near the anti aircraft artillery that the Soviet Army and Viet Minh had.  It appears that we the United States Armed forces do not control our lines of communications (LOCs) (This is not a good thing).

We have had 10 years to improve the road networks, but for a myriad of reasons have been unable to accomplish this task.  Number one reason cited is the territory is not safe, meaning the hostiles currently have enough of a presents to deny us the use of the ground.  But even in area where it appears that we do control the country side improvements seem to be singularly unimpressive.  Case in point is the Salang Tunnel, which with the loss ground resupply routes from Pakistan via Khyber Pass, has now taken on new importance, since it is now the only ground route left for bring NATO/ISAF supplies into or in the case of a draw down out of Afghanistan.  The toll and fees on the Pakistan route are considered to be too excessive.  Cannot really blame Pakistan, with the announced draw down and such the money train is due to leave the station soon, and you want to strike while the iron is hot.  NATO/ISAF staff is just getting around to planning on upgrading this tunnel, which by most accounts is in terrible and fairly unsafe conditions.   The tunnel that was completed in 1964 was designed for 1,000 vehicles per day traffic now experiences traffic in excess of 16,000 vehicles per day.

While and when the Pakistan route via the Khyber Pass was in use as the primary supply route for NATO/ISAF supplies it accounted for 80 percent of supplies delivered.

In 2005 the first year that the Air Force started to track airdrop of supplies, only 2 million pounds were delivered in this manner.  In 2006 3.5 million pounds of supplies were reported as airdropped.  2007 8.1 million pounds of supplies were air dropped.  2008 16.5 million pounds of supplies were delivered by airdrop.  2009 32.2 million pounds of supplies were airdropped.  60.4 million pounds were recorded as airdropped in 2010. It was reported that 30 million pounds of supplies were air dropped.  In 2010 the United States Air Force reported that 60 million pounds were air dropped.  In 2011 80.4 million pounds of supplies were air dropped.  We do not have number for 2012 but my bet is that it is greater or equal to 2011 numbers maybe 92 million pounds (it is just a guess).

For those of you who are more visually inclined I have provided the following graph.

To put into daily terms and scales that most of us know as to how much is being delivered via airdrop in Afghanistan, I have provided the following examples.

In 2006 it was weight equivalent of dropping the 1.4 Ford F-150’s from the sky everyday for the entire year.  2007 we are now dropping 3.26 F-150’s from the sky everyday of the year.  In 2008 we are up to 6.65 F-150’s everyday of the year or 1 every 4 hours of everyday of the year.  2009 it is 12.97 F-150’s, a little over one every two hours everyday of the year.  2010 we at 24.17 F-150’s everyday, or 1 every hour of everyday for the entire year.  2011 it is 32.39 F-150’s everyday, or 1.34 every hour of everyday for the entire year.

Be advised in the process of doing all of this we are flying the guts out of our C-130, C-17, and C-5 aircraft fleets, they will not make there project operational life time since those calculation were based on lower number of annual flight hours, but that is another problem for another day.

There was also the US Marine Corp experiment in Afghanistan with 2 unmanned K-MAX helicopters with the capability to the delivery of up to 3.5 tons of supplies to forward operating bases.  The Marines decided to perform this task at night in order to reduce the chance that the vehicles would be taken out by ground based small arms fire.  As reported in Defense Industry Daily, since November 2011 to July 2012, the 2 K-Max aircrafts have flow 485 sorties, with 525 hours in flight and delivered more than 1.6 million pounds of cargo.  This 1.6 million is in addition to that delivered via airdrop by the United States Air Force.

http://www.defenseindustrydaily.com/USMC-Looks-for-an-Unmanned-Cargo-Helicopter-06672/

And then there is this from the following link

http://www.airforce-magazine.com/MagazineArchive/Pages/2012/June%202012/0612mobility.aspx

June 2012 the United States Air Force Air Mobility Command Chief Gen. Raymond E. Johns Jr. predicts that about a third of the forces in Afghanistan later this year will be supported exclusively by airdropped supplies- everything from food and ammunition pallets to water and fuel bladders.  If that is not another stone on the pile that we do not control the ground what is?

The ever increasing tonnage of supplies being airdropped to forward operating bases, the increasing number of IED being encounter, and one must assume that these are in the area’s that NATO/ISAF feels are under there control, since we can deduce by the airdrop numbers that the command will not even consider resupply to these sites by convoy.

Does this sound like we control the countryside, or even enough of the countryside to make a difference.

Based on Brian Cloughley (Analyst for IHS/Jane’s Sentinel) post in found here in the The News

http://www.thenews.com.pk/Todays-News-9-143413-Afghanistans-lost-war

God only knows how sedated the briefer of the Secretary General of NATO Anders Fogh Rasmussen was and for that matter how sedated the Secretary General of NATO was when he was briefed.  The Secretary General is quoted as saying afterward that “The enemy is being pushed further back from the population”, and “We saw Afghan security forces that are growing more capable and more confident” as stated in the article these statements by the Secretary General are “ misleading to the point of downright dishonesty.”

We still have Green on Blue incidences, yes the number are down, I suspect because NATO/ISAF has significantly reduced the amount of exposure NATO/ISAF personnel have to ANA personnel.

Does it sound like victory?

Why are we supporting NATO? Why are supporting NATO in Libya? What does it have to do with the Deficit?

Given the latest remarks by the French President Nicolas Sarkozy 24 June 2011. http://www.defensenews.com/story.php?i=6914474&c=EUR&s=TOP  Why are we supporting NATO (I mean the French and the Brits) in this endeavor (folly) in Libya?

This question begs some additional larger questions.  What is purpose of NATO? (This is left to the reader)  Why is the United States still in NATO? (Ibid.)  Why is the United States paying most of the cost of NATO? (Ibid.)

In 1999 the United States was paying 1.148 Trillion Dollars for NATO operations.  In 2010 the United States paid somewhere around 0.712 Trillion Dollars for NATO operations.  We still pay the same percentage of the Total NATO Budget; because the NATO budget is smaller and  hence our portion is smaller.  Of course the main reason the NATO budget is smaller is that the United States is given less.  But regardless of the reason the United States is spending nearly three-quarters of a Trillion Dollars to be a member of the Country Club.

If we the people do not feel that we the people are getting our money’s worth then it is up to we the people to change the situation.

Just a little back of the envelope budget exercise, I know that it is as crude as an axe, but it is at least a starting point.  If the United States could magically drop out of the NATO Country Club, and stop paying our annual membership due what would that due to the United States Budget deficit?

The effect on the FY 2010 Budget would have resulted in a 54.9 percent reduction in the Deficit.  Here is how the math works out.  According to the Financial Management Service of the Dept. of the Treasury, May 2011 Monthly Treasury Statement the FY 2010 deficit was  $1,294,203,000,000.00.  I put all of the zero’s in for effect, since the MTS reports their number in Million, we do not want to scare the public.  If we subtract out the $710,000,000,000.00 for NATO for FY 2010, we are left with a deficit of $583,203,000,000.00 for FY 2010, which is a 54.93 Percent reduction.

If we get a little more adventurous and subtract the $11,400,000,000.00 for the F-#%, (F-35) program, and the $30,000,000,000.00 for the supplemental Afghanistan funding we would have knocked down the FY 2010 deficit to  $538,803,000,000.00 which is a 58.3 percent reduction.

Three items and we are nearly 60 percent the way to reducing the deficit to zero.

The NATO numbers come from the following link http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Articles/2011/06/22/Libya-May-Be-NATOs-Last-Mission.aspx

The F-#% (F-35) Program come from the following link www.afa.org/edop/2009/R40567.pdf

The FY 2010 Supplemental Number for Afghanistan from the following link http://democrats.appropriations.house.gov/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=623&Itemid=28

The Deficit numbers come from the following link http://www.fms.treas.gov/mts/index.html

Three items from the United States Budget ok two from the budget, and one from off the budget. And we have made a very significant inroad into the problem.  The deficit does not care if they on or off the budget.

As I used to say when I taught Physics, I have made the first pass; the rest is left up to the students to complete.

The best thing about cutting these items is: 

NATO does not vote in any House, Senate, or Presidential elections, so there should be no constituent’s cry about it, all right there might be some, who could lose contracts.  Given the resent remarks by the President of France on the outgoing SECDEF, it going to be hard if not down right impossible for most of us to continue our support of NATO.

Afghanistan has few if many individual who vote in any House, Senate, or Presidential elections.  There might be a few screams in Afghanistan, but that’s on the other side of the world.  Most of the screams will be from learning that the Gravy Train is leaving the Station.

F-#% (F-35) does have some constituents, but with killing of the F-#%(F-35) we will still have to spend some funds upgrading and purchasing additional legacy aircraft, and since they come from the same sources, the crying should not be as loud.  Yes they are not going to make as much money, but they are still going to make some money.

We Have Declared Victory

Beside Osama Bin Laden not wanting to be Killed or Captured, there was one other individual who did not want Osama Bin Laden to meet that fate.  That person was none other than the President of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan, His Excellence Hamid Karzai.  For with the death of Osama Bin Laden, the United States people have no reason to be in Afghanistan, the mission is done.  The United States Government on the other hand might have a different view.  It will take the United States Government a few months to wake up and figure out that while they were walking down the street in front of the parade, the parade made a turn off the street, on or about 3 May 2011.

The majority of the people in the United States do not care one iota about rebuilding the nation of Afghanistan.  For that matter many of the citizens of the NATO states who have troops in Afghanistan do not care one iota about rebuilding the nation of Afghanistan.

What these people do care about is the cost of the war in terms of their dead and wounded, and the financial cost to prop up a corrupt government, that currently is tied for second place with Myanmar as being one of the most corrupt. The number one honor goes to Somalia  (2010 Transparency International).  Boy, we sure no how to pick them, I am just surprised that we do not have troops in Myanmar.

With the Presidential announcement about the draw down of the United States Armed Forces in Afghanistan (and the various NATO member announcements), the impending and accelerated departure of Gen David H. Petraeus so that he can step right into his new position as Director Central Intelligence Agency (The Senate will confirm, he is a war hero), and the recent sharp statements from the current United States Ambassador to the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan, to the President of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan, the writing is on the wall, the gravy train is leaving the station.

It is time to start getting ready to make a run for the border, because when the last American boot leaves the ground in Islamic Republic of Afghanistan, all hell is going to break lose.

The big question for His Excellency is can I get out of this pit without getting member of my family or my self killed, and what nation will provide me with asylum?