Why do some of the Republican whiners remind me of Vizzini

With the passing of the election and the wishes of the people now known, we are no longer subject to endless speculation by the various experts/pundits/party hacks.

Why do some of the republican whiners, and you know who you are sound like the character Vizzini (the Sicilian) from the Princess Bride.  You remember the guy who was always saying “INCONCEIVABLE” to almost everything that in the end would prove to be true.

Well as inconceivable as the results appear, the results are nonetheless true.

The question for the Republican Party is what if anything did you any of you learn from the results of this last election?

Here is a list of items I feel you did not learn.

The majority of the United States population is women.

The population of the United States is diverse, and that it is becoming more diverse.

That at the end of the day no matter how much money an individual has he or she only gets one vote.

That for every one who is in the 1 percent group, there are 99 who are not in that group.

It only takes one of 99 to vote for the other candidate to return the election to the zero point. That still leaves the other 98 individual to vote for whom they want.

Most people do not like it when someone attempts to buy an election.

Most people like to know who is paying the bill for that political ad, especially if it is an “issue” message.

That in trying to make it harder for individual to vote only makes them want to vote that much more, because you are trying to take something away.  You would be far better off in promoting apathy, you know you can vote, in fact we have made it easier to vote, but why would you want to bother, it is just a fools errand.

Control your fringe groups if you cannot control them, then actively repudiate, renounce, disown and marginalize them.  They are not helping, the votes required to win the election are in the middle, not in the fringe.

It is just amazing: The Benders to end all Benders?

The plot of Household Disposable Income minus Household Debt, and it is just amazing and profound.  See Plot 1.

Plot 1

The data for this comes from the United States Federal Reserves, FRED system maintained by the St. Louis Federal Reserve.  The data is from just two of the FRED data sets DPIC96 and CMDEBT.  The data sets starts back in 1949 and ends in Early 2012, all I did was a point by point subtraction to produce the this plot.

It looks like we lost our collective footing and just stepped off the cliff in 2000.  Was this the result of the passage of the Commodities Futures Modernization Act of 2000?  Which specifically stated that CDS were neither future contracts nor were they securities, and therefore outside of regulation by either the SEC, or the CFTC, in other word there is no Sheriff in town and you can pretty much do, as you like, and they did.

A good read on what is wrong with Generals

If you want to have a good read on what is wrong with flag rank officers.  Then read the article Thomas Ricks at the following link: http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2012/11/general-failure/309148/

Just a note it took me three years to read Mr. Ricks book “Fiasco”, not because the book was bad, but because all I could is read a few pages before I was mouth foaming mad, and I would have to put it down, or suffer some type of blowout.

The American soldier is one of if not the best in the world.  But what was once a better than average leadership core, had over time turned into something that I would not let walk my dog, much less lead my children into battle.  My family has had a tradition of serving in the military, unless there is a clear and present danger (the enemy state who ever they are is landing troops or threating to land troops on our shores) the family tradition will stop with me.

One of major complaints has been the lack of leadership in the officer corps (in particular the flag officers), and the emphasis on management, many of them have some advance degree in “some type of management”, as opposed to the Art and Science of War.  The officer corps those who have remained have turned into a bunch of power point idiots.  Hell they even have the power point police.  I have seen various chiefs of staff, and staff officers more concerned over the format of the power point, rather than the actual information that is to be presented.  It seems to get worse every time there is a new commanding officer.

I have seen stunts performed by some officers (company grade, field grade, and flag grade) that 20 years ago would have had that individual walking the streets in search of a new occupation, and yet these individual continue to be promoted up.  I have heard discussions that we must not do any thing to Smedley since he has a family, and how will they make it on the outside.  So instead they keep Smedley and inflict him on the personnel under his command, and God forbid that they ever have to go in harms way.

I cannot remember the number of times that I heard the phrase “We will manage the battle zone”.  War is chaos, and last time I check chaos was one of those things that cannot be managed.

Again I urge you to read the post.

General Ward will have to wait until after the election

The Department of Defense is strangely silence on General Ward.  Well it appears that General Ward will have to wait until after the election.  Which might be good news for the General.

If the General is let off easy (allowed to retire either as a General, or possibly as a Lieutenant General) and it is announced before the election it would be fodder for the Republicans, the Department of Defense under the Democrats are soft on suspected/reported/investigated official corruption.

If the General is not left off easy and it is announced before the election it would again be fodder for the Republicans, the Department of Defense under the Democrats selection process for Flag Officers has some issues.

At this time Brig General Jeffery A. Sinclair is setting at Fort Bragg, where he is accused of and is being investigated for allegations of sexual misconduct, adultery and other offenses over inappropriate relationships with several women under his command.

Amazon Stock could go $20 Either Way: Pros

-->

What a prognostication by the CNBC Fast Money Pros.  Here is the link http://www.cnbc.com/id/49541019

I can see Statler and Waldorf on the side crying out:  Bravo!  Truly amazing!  Mind Boggling!  Stupendous!  Here are some people who need to heed the immortal words Bullwinkle the Moose, “No doubt about Rocky I got to get a better Hat”.  I need to remind my self of Statler and Waldorf breaking the fourth wall comments when they asked “Why do you watch it?” or when Statler stated that he didn’t care much for puppets much, not finding them believable.  These guys might be in the same class, as puppets.  Do they get paid for this dribble?  This is from the network with a tagline that is “Fast, Accurate, Actionable, Unbiased”.  Well it does appear to be fast.  Accurate?  (If your target is a barn, then you are in luck.)  Actionable? (Your guess is a good as mine.)  It could be unbiased.  Well two out four, if it were the batting average of a major league baseball player it would be fantastic.

With Amazon at $228.49 per share, a $20.00 move either way has the price moving within a 17.5 percent window.  Yep saying that a stock could go up or down is amazing, and that it would remain within +/- 8.75 percent window within a single day, words escape me as to how to describe this prediction.

I know that if the stock market made a 8.75 percent move in either directions within a day and you could bet that either some type of miracle had just occurred, or that at a truly massive high speed trading error (Flash Crash) had just occurred, or some truly massive fraud had just been discovered.  Talk about going out on a limb, these folks brought their “A” game.  Talk about knowing where the market is going.

Their call is about as smart as backing your car down the driveway and turning the car either 30 degrees to right or to the left and continuing to back down the driveway hoping to make the street.

Rajat Gupta is now a “Real Player”

Rajat Gupta friends and associates recounted in several article as to why he did what he did, in that for whatever reason he wanted to be in their words a “Real Player”.

Congratulation Rajat you are now a “Real Player”, and like all “Real Player” you now have a rap sheet, with 4 Felony convictions, and not just any Felony Convictions but Federal Felony Convictions, you have arrived in the big league, way to go big fella, you are off to one nice start on the road to being a “Real Player”.  Now you get to spend a little time in stir (it just adds to the mystic of being a “Real Player”), do not worry a “Real Player” like you can do 24 months on standing on your head, and you just might spend some of it on your head so for gosh darn sakes be careful.  The 24 months gets you a minimum-security facility according to the Federal Correction Facilities guidelines (Lucky You, the Judge did you a favor, and you should write him a thank you note).  The bad news is there is no parole from federal prison (You can thank your Congressman and Senator for that feature).

You get to report after the first of the year, “Real Player” get taken from the courtroom to the holding cell to the bus, to the facility. (Again you should write the Judge a thank you note)

Compared to your life now it will be really bad, but you can take it after all you are a “Real Player”.  To an individual who has been to either a medium, high security, or maximum Security they will not look at you as a “Real Player”, they will look at you as having only played in the Class A league.  Medium Security being Double A, High Security as Triple A, and Maximum Security as the Big League.  But remember all of the leagues keep score and they all play for keeps.

Rajat just a little note “Real Players” do not whine, the guards do not like it, and guess what the other “Real Player” really hate it.  Every freaking day will be Ground Hog Day, get use to it, cause after all you a “Real Player”.  Your time is their time.  The food selection sucks, but not as bad as the food sucks, hopefully someone puts money into your account so that you can get stuff from the commissary (Note selection here is also very limited).  Who can visit you and when they can visit you and how often they can visit you, how long they can visit you will not be in your sphere of control.  “Real Players” do not have control.

Early Release, the good news is that it possible, the bad news reduction is minimal (Again you should take a moment to thank your Congressman and Senator for this feature of the Law).  If your sentence is greater than 1 year but less than life, you already might be a winner, in that if you keep your nose clean, they might take 54 days off your sentence (So one full year of good behavior is only worth 54 Days, what a system).  It does not appear that any additional time off can be earned for that last year of your sentence, but you could lose any and all “good time” by even the most minor of offenses in that last year.

When you get out you will be something really special, it is called “unemployable”, because you are now a CONVICTED FELON, but given your age that may not be an issue.  When you get out it will be spooky.

You will have to be careful with who you hang out with especially during your supervised time after your release, given that hanging with other convicted felons is not acceptable for you or them.  Do not worry about holding any type of state issued professional licensed because that is not going to happen because you are a CONVICTED FELON.  Do not worry about getting any type of position where you have to be bonded, cause you are a CONVICTED FELON.  Forget about voting, because you are a CONVICTED FELON.

I am not sure if it has really hit you already, but I know it will hit you one night in your first week, that it really sucks to be a “Real Player”.  To have climbed so high and to have fallen so far it is a sin.  Your real test will not be prison; it will be what you do with the time God has given you after you leave prison.

How much money did you make today how does it compare to the Presidential Candidates? Or not so much fun with numbers

I do not know what started me down this path, but it would not let me go.  In this little exercise of basic mathematic we will take Barack H Obama, and Willard M Romney (Order of citation determined by alphabetical order of last Name) Income Tax Number as reported by each candidate, and see what we can see.

The Candidates Data

2010 reported Adjusted Gross Income Barack H. Obama $1,728,096.00 Dollars. Charitable Contributions $245,075.00 Dollars, Federal Income Tax paid $416,734.00 Dollars

2011 Reported Adjusted Gross Income Barack H. Obama $789,674.00 Dollars, Charitable Contributions $172,130.00 Dollars, Federal Income Tax paid $162,074.00 Dollars.

2010 reported Adjusted Gross Income Willard M. Romney $21,661,344.00 Dollars, Charitable Contributions $2,983,974.00 Dollars, Federal Income Tax paid $3.009,766.00 Dollars

2011 Reported Adjusted Gross Income Willard M. Romney $20,901,075.00 Dollars. Charitable Contribution $$4,020,572.00 Dollars, federal Income Tax paid $3,226,623.00 Dollars.

The First Pass

In 2010 after taxes and charitable contributions Barack H. Obama was left with $1,066,287.00 Dollars or $2,921.33 Dollars per Day.

In 2010 after taxes and charitable contributions Willard M. Romney was left with $15,667,604.00 Dollars or $42,924.94 Dollars per Day.

In 2011 after taxes and charitable contributions Barack H. Obama was left with $455,470.00 Dollars or $1,247.86 Dollars per Day.

In 2011 after taxes and charitable contributions Willard M. Romney was left with $13,653,880.00 Dollars or $37,407.89 Dollars per Day.

The Second Pass

In 2010 Willard M. Romney took 24.84 days to make what Barack H. Obama made in 365 days.

In 2011 Willard M. Romney took 12.17 days to make what Barack H. Obama made in 365 days

The Third Pass

How does it compare to the averages?  The most recent averages I could locate were for 2008.  In 2008 John Q. Average Adjusted Gross Income, $58,006.00 Dollars. Charitable Contributions $4,412.00 Dollars, Federal Income Tax paid $7,242.00 Dollars (note see the below discussion as to how these number were developed).

In 2008 after taxes and charitable contributions John Q, Average was left with $46,352.78 Dollars or $126.99 Dollars per day.

For the sake of argument agree that these number are going to be in the ballpark (+/- 10 Percent) for 2010 and 2011, in other words they are not going to change by an order of magnitude.

In 2010 Willard M. Romney would require only 1.079 Days to make what John Q. Average made in 365 days.

In 2010 Barack H. Obama would require only 15.87 Days to make what John Q. Average made in 365 days.

Fourth Pass

We could flip it around the other way.  John Q. Average would have to work 338 days to make what Willard M. Romney made in 1 day in 2010.  John Q. Average would have to work 23 days to make what Barack H. Obama made in 1 day in 2010.

End of the Trail

These are just numbers and simple calculation done by a simple old man what you do with them is up to you, what if any conclusions you draw from them are entirely up to you.  They are just something to think about.

(How John Q. Average numbers were developed for those who are interested)

The latest data I could find is available from the United State Government is “The 2012 Statistical Abstract, The National Data Book” link below

http://www.census.gov/compendia/statab/cats/federal_govt_finances_employment/federal_individual_income_tax_returns.html

In particular reports number 488, “Individual Income Tax Returns—Number, Income Tax, and Average Tax by Size of Adjusted Gross Income” and number 489” Federal Individual Income Tax Returns—Selected Itemized Deductions and the Standard Deduction”.

The most current reporting period is for the year 2008, but it should be close enough for practical purposes in this comparison. (I do not anticipate an order of magnitude change between 2008, and or 2010 and 2011.)

In 2008 there were 142,450,569 tax returns filed in the United States (That in it self is a pretty amazing number), the aggregate reported AGI was $8,264,000,000,000.00 Dollars for an average of $58,006.00 Dollar per return filed.  In 2008 a total of $1,031,580,923,000.00 Dollars of Federal Income taxes was reported as collected.  In 2008 there was an average of $7,242,00 Dollars per tax collected for each return filed.  Finally in 2008 a total of 39,200,000 tax returns were filled with itemized cash charitable contribution (Again an amazing number).  A total of $172,936,000,000.00 dollars of charitable contributions were reported on these filed tax returns, or $4,412.00 Dollars of Charitable Contribution per file tax return with an itemized charitable contribution.